‘કેમ તમારો વિચાર બદલી ગયો કે શું ? અહીંયા કેમ ઊભા રહી ગયા ?’
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Start t o enjoy life NOW !!!
‘કેમ તમારો વિચાર બદલી ગયો કે શું ? અહીંયા કેમ ઊભા રહી ગયા ?’
What is LUck ????
"What if the best candidates are in there?"
"You have a point," he said. "But then again, I don't need people with bad luck here."
- M.Asad Ahmed ( Reader's digest)
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Warren buffet
Warren Buffett is the world's most successful investor. He started out with money from his three newspaper routes in Washington DC and other small money-making activities. He saved his money and invested it.
Here are the amazing figures:
Age 20, end of 1950 has $9,804 (childhood savings and investments)
Age 21, end of 1951 has $19,738 (a good year in the markets!)
Age 26, 1956 has about $174,000
Age 76, 2006 has about $44,000,000,000 ($44 billion) and begins to give his fortune to Charities. Compounded gain in wealth per year since 1956 was about 28% per year.
Buffett only ever worked for anyone else for about 4 or 5 years. Beginning in 1956 he generated his wealth strictly from investments (which included running an investment partnership and soon included buying whole companies rather than just stocks and bonds). As president of his investment company Berkshire Hathaway his salary has been $200,000 per year for many many years with no bonuses or stock options added to that.
The point is, the man generated $44 billion in wealth from a standing start (no significant inheritance) simply through astute investing. If that does not motivate you as an investor, I don't know what would.
Maybe, just maybe, we can all learn something from Warren Buffett. Maybe, just maybe, his methods and teachings are worth following.
Did you know that Buffett told the investment world in 1999 that stocks were over-valued? He demonstrated that stocks could not return the double-digit returns that investors were expecting. The stock market had been rising rapidly (with some bumps along the way) since 1982. Most investors thought that the internet and the technology boom would allow the market to continue to deliver double digit returns. Buffett pointed out why double digit returns were very unlikely.
At a conference in August 1999, and as publised in Fortune magazine in November 1999, Buffett pointed out that while in the 17 years since 1982, the DOW was up astoundingly from 875 to 9181, in the prior 17 years from the end of 1964 to the end of 1981, the Dow had ended up exactly 1 point from 874 to 875.
Buffett explained that the poor performance in the 1965 through 1981 period was primarily due to rising interest rates and that, conversely, the out-performance in the 17 years ending 1999 was primarily due to declining interest rates. The U.S economy had grown in both periods (370% in the poor-returns period, somewhat under 300% in the mega returns period).
Buffett pointed out that in the long-run earnings grow at about the rate of nominal GDP growth. He then suggested that a reasonable forecast for GDP growth was 5% (3% real growth and 2% for inflation). Adding 2% for dividends he concluded that the overall U.S. stock market was unlikley to return more than 7% per year in the longer term strating from 1999. In fact given the high value of the market in 1999, Buffett's best guess for the return in the 17 years after 1999 was just 6%. Less than half of what most investors were used to and expecting! And he believed it was just as likelyto be less than 6% as more.
In 1999 Buffett's article was met with great skepticism, (he was yesterday's man etc.) investors kept on bidding stock prices up, until they crashed in 2001.
As of 2009 it looks like Buffett may even have been optimisitic - as indeed he said he might be. The Dow is right now at almost exactly the same level as it was in 1999 and the Dow's total return has therefore come only from dividends, perhaps 2% or 2.5% per year. So the DOW has got to rise quickly in the next seven years just to give the 6% that Buffett had guessed it might.
So the point is, Buffett was right in 1999, his simple anlysis has proved to be valid.
In late 2001 Buffett followed up his 1999 FORTUNE magazine article and I was lucky enough to see it. I also at that time dug up the original 1999 article.
Starting in 2002 I have regularly used Buffett's method to try to calculate whether or not the DOW and the S&P 500 were fairly valued or not.
As Buffett said in his 1999 article this is not meant to be a way to predict where the market is going in the short term. But it can help us regognise when the market appears to be over-priced or under-priced. In the long-trun, investing more money when the market seems under-valued is likely to be a winning strategy.
Just today I have updated my analysis of the valuation of the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes, using this Buffett-style analysis. In these latest updates I have added additional charts of GDP versus earnings (a relationship used by Buffett) and I believe that these charts can help us understand the "normalized" earnings on the DOW and the S&P 500 and therefore to understand the attactiveness (or lack thereof) of the stock markets at this time.
Warren buffet
Warren Buffett is the world's most successful investor. He started out with money from his three newspaper routes in Washington DC and other small money-making activities. He saved his money and invested it.
Here are the amazing figures:
Age 20, end of 1950 has $9,804 (childhood savings and investments)
Age 21, end of 1951 has $19,738 (a good year in the markets!)
Age 26, 1956 has about $174,000
Age 76, 2006 has about $44,000,000,000 ($44 billion) and begins to give his fortune to Charities. Compounded gain in wealth per year since 1956 was about 28% per year.
Buffett only ever worked for anyone else for about 4 or 5 years. Beginning in 1956 he generated his wealth strictly from investments (which included running an investment partnership and soon included buying whole companies rather than just stocks and bonds). As president of his investment company Berkshire Hathaway his salary has been $200,000 per year for many many years with no bonuses or stock options added to that.
The point is, the man generated $44 billion in wealth from a standing start (no significant inheritance) simply through astute investing. If that does not motivate you as an investor, I don't know what would.
Maybe, just maybe, we can all learn something from Warren Buffett. Maybe, just maybe, his methods and teachings are worth following.
Did you know that Buffett told the investment world in 1999 that stocks were over-valued? He demonstrated that stocks could not return the double-digit returns that investors were expecting. The stock market had been rising rapidly (with some bumps along the way) since 1982. Most investors thought that the internet and the technology boom would allow the market to continue to deliver double digit returns. Buffett pointed out why double digit returns were very unlikely.
At a conference in August 1999, and as publised in Fortune magazine in November 1999, Buffett pointed out that while in the 17 years since 1982, the DOW was up astoundingly from 875 to 9181, in the prior 17 years from the end of 1964 to the end of 1981, the Dow had ended up exactly 1 point from 874 to 875.
Buffett explained that the poor performance in the 1965 through 1981 period was primarily due to rising interest rates and that, conversely, the out-performance in the 17 years ending 1999 was primarily due to declining interest rates. The U.S economy had grown in both periods (370% in the poor-returns period, somewhat under 300% in the mega returns period).
Buffett pointed out that in the long-run earnings grow at about the rate of nominal GDP growth. He then suggested that a reasonable forecast for GDP growth was 5% (3% real growth and 2% for inflation). Adding 2% for dividends he concluded that the overall U.S. stock market was unlikley to return more than 7% per year in the longer term strating from 1999. In fact given the high value of the market in 1999, Buffett's best guess for the return in the 17 years after 1999 was just 6%. Less than half of what most investors were used to and expecting! And he believed it was just as likelyto be less than 6% as more.
In 1999 Buffett's article was met with great skepticism, (he was yesterday's man etc.) investors kept on bidding stock prices up, until they crashed in 2001.
As of 2009 it looks like Buffett may even have been optimisitic - as indeed he said he might be. The Dow is right now at almost exactly the same level as it was in 1999 and the Dow's total return has therefore come only from dividends, perhaps 2% or 2.5% per year. So the DOW has got to rise quickly in the next seven years just to give the 6% that Buffett had guessed it might.
So the point is, Buffett was right in 1999, his simple anlysis has proved to be valid.
In late 2001 Buffett followed up his 1999 FORTUNE magazine article and I was lucky enough to see it. I also at that time dug up the original 1999 article.
Starting in 2002 I have regularly used Buffett's method to try to calculate whether or not the DOW and the S&P 500 were fairly valued or not.
As Buffett said in his 1999 article this is not meant to be a way to predict where the market is going in the short term. But it can help us regognise when the market appears to be over-priced or under-priced. In the long-trun, investing more money when the market seems under-valued is likely to be a winning strategy.
Just today I have updated my analysis of the valuation of the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes, using this Buffett-style analysis. In these latest updates I have added additional charts of GDP versus earnings (a relationship used by Buffett) and I believe that these charts can help us understand the "normalized" earnings on the DOW and the S&P 500 and therefore to understand the attactiveness (or lack thereof) of the stock markets at this time.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Did you know priority in life???
When things in your life seem almost too much to handle,
When 24 Hours in a day is not enough,
Remember the mayonnaise jar and 2 cups of coffee.
A professor stood before his philosophy class and had some items in
Front of him. When the class began, wordlessly,
He picked up a very large and empty mayonnaise jar
And proceeded to fill it with golf balls.
He then asked the students if the jar was full.
They agreed that it was.
The professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the
Jar. He shook the jar lightly. The pebbles rolled into the open
Areas between the golf balls.
He then asked the students again if the jar was full..
They agreed it was.
The professor next picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar.
Of course, the sand filled up everything else.
He asked once more if the jar was full.
The students responded with an unanimous "yes."
The professor then produced two cups of coffee
From under the table And poured the entire contents
Into the jar, effectively filling the empty space between the sand.
The students laughed.
"Now," said the professor, as the laughter subsided,
"I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life.
The golf balls are the important things - God, family, children, health,
Friends, and Favorite passions -- things that if everything else was
Lost and only they remained, your life would still be full.
The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, house, and
Car.
The sand is everything else --the small stuff.
"If you put the sand into the jar first," he continued,
"there is no room for the pebbles or the golf balls.
The same goes for life.
If you spend all your time and energy on the small stuff,
You will never have room for the things that are
Important to you.
So...
Pay attention to the things that are critical to your happiness.
Play With your children. Take time to get medical checkups.
Take your partner out to dinner.. Play another 18.
There will always be time to clean the house and fix the disposal.
"Take care of the golf balls first --the things that really matter.
Set your priorities. The rest is just sand."
One of the students raised her hand and inquired
What the coffee represented.
The professor smiled. "I'm glad you asked".
It just goes to show you that no matter how full your life may seem,
there's always room for a couple of cups of coffee with a friend."
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Saturday, September 12, 2009
House budget ?????How ??? From investopedia.com
Often, only one person in the household is responsible for maintaining the family budget and managing the household's finances - and if you're reading this, that person is probably you. But what if you died or became incapacitated and could no longer manage the budget? Or what if you're just tired of managing everything yourself, or your partner wants to become more involved in your household's finances? How do you teach your partner everything you know?
You may think your filing system couldn't be any more organized and that your financial records are in a pretty obvious location, but your partner might not. While you probably have printed documents related to some of your financial affairs, there's a good chance some of your information is stored solely in your memory bank, as you probably manage some of your finances online. Without access to your email to receive monthly statement reminders, your partner probably doesn't know how to find all of your online accounts, and may not even know which banks and brokerage companies you use, not to mention all the bills you pay. A list of all of your accounts makes it easy for your partner to see everything that needs to be addressed.
Friday, September 11, 2009
KUTTA...SHARE AUR BANDAR........
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Stock market game !!!
He announced that he would buy monkeys from them for Rs 10 per monkey. So, the villagers began catching them by the dozen, and as promised the man paid them.
But pretty soon the villagers became laid-back and the pace of work slowed down. So, the man offered to pay Rs 20 for every monkey they caught.
The villagers started catching monkeys with a vengeance, again. But pretty soon the supply diminished, and people returned to their farms. The going price was raised to Rs 25 and then, Rs 50.
Then one fine day the man had to visit the city and asked his assistant to take over.
The assistant came up with a new game place. He asked the villagers to buy the same monkeys that were sold by them for Rs 35 and sell them to the man for Rs 50. The villagers queued up with all their savings to buy the monkeys.
After some days, neither the man nor the assistant could be found. There were monkeys all around!
Friday, September 4, 2009
How positive attitude works??
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Love
Friday, May 1, 2009
In which you fit ???Romance / Affair / Marriage / Pregnancy ???
Smart man + smart woman=Romance !
Smart man + dump woman=Affair !!
Dump man + smart woman=Marriage !!!
Dump man +dump woman=Pregnancy !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Difference in Business !! (Cash & Credit)
How people (particularly Indians) lose their money secretly, some times some people know this thing but still they are helpless.
Congratulations!!! You have won a cash prize! You have two payment options:
A. Receive $10,000 now
OR
B. Receive $10,000 in three years
Which option would you choose?
What Is Time Value?
If you're like most people, you would choose to receive the $10,000 now. After all, three years is a long time to wait. Why would any rational person defer payment into the future when he or she could have the same amount of money now? For most of us, taking the money in the present is just plain instinctive. So at the most basic level, the time value of money demonstrates that, all things being equal, it is better to have money now rather than later.
But why is this? A $100 bill has the same value as a $100 bill one year from now, doesn't it? Actually, although the bill is the same, you can do much more with the money if you have it now because over time you can earn more interest on your money.
Back to our example: by receiving $10,000 today, you are poised to increase the future value of your money by investing and gaining interest over a period of time. For Option B, you don't have time on your side, and the payment received in three years would be your future value. To illustrate, we have provided a timeline:
If you are choosing Option A, your future value will be $10,000 plus any interest acquired over the three years. The future value for Option B, on the other hand, would only be $10,000. So how can you calculate exactly how much more Option A is worth, compared to Option B? Let's take a look.
Future Value Basics
If you choose Option A and invest the total amount at a simple annual rate of 4.5%, the future value of your investment at the end of the first year is $10,450, which of course is calculated by multiplying the principal amount of $10,000 by the interest rate of 4.5% and then adding the interest gained to the principal amount:
| Future value of investment at end of first year:
= ($10,000 x 0.045) + $10,000 = $10,450 |
You can also calculate the total amount of a one-year investment with a simple manipulation of the above equation:
- Original equation: ($10,000 x 0.045) + $10,000 = $10,450
- Manipulation: $10,000 x [(1 x 0.045) + 1] = $10,450
- Final equation: $10,000 x (0.045 + 1) = $10,450
If the $10,450 left in your investment account at the end of the first year is left untouched and you invested it at 4.5% for another year, how much would you have? To calculate this, you would take the $10,450 and multiply it again by 1.045 (0.045 +1). At the end of two years, you would have $10,920:
| Future value of investment at end of second year:
= $10,450 x (1+0.045) = $10,920.25 |
The above calculation, then, is equivalent to the following equation:
| Future Value = $10,000 x (1+0.045) x (1+0.045) |
Think back to math class and the rule of exponents, which states that the multiplication of like terms is equivalent to adding their exponents. In the above equation, the two like terms are (1+0.045), and the exponent on each is equal to 1. Therefore, the equation can be represented as the following:
We can see that the exponent is equal to the number of years for which the money is earning interest in an investment. So, the equation for calculating the three-year future value of the investment would look like this:
This calculation shows us that we don't need to calculate the future value after the first year, then the second year, then the third year, and so on. If you know how many years you would like to hold a present amount of money in an investment, the future value of that amount is calculated by the following equation:
Present Value Basics
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If you received $10,000 today, the present value would of course be $10,000 because present value is what your investment gives you now if you were to spend it today. If $10,000 were to be received in a year, the present value of the amount would not be $10,000 because you do not have it in your hand now, in the present. To find the present value of the $10,000 you will receive in the future, you need to pretend that the $10,000 is the total future value of an amount that you invested today. In other words, to find the present value of the future $10,000, we need to find out how much we would have to invest today in order to receive that $10,000 in the future.
To calculate present value, or the amount that we would have to invest today, you must subtract the (hypothetical) accumulated interest from the $10,000. To achieve this, we can discount the future payment amount ($10,000) by the interest rate for the period. In essence, all you are doing is rearranging the future value equation above so that you may solve for P. The above future value equation can be rewritten by replacing the P variable with present value (PV) and manipulated as follows:
Let's walk backwards from the $10,000 offered in Option B. Remember, the $10,000 to be received in three years is really the same as the future value of an investment. If today we were at the two-year mark, we would discount the payment back one year. At the two-year mark, the present value of the $10,000 to be received in one year is represented as the following:
| Present value of future payment of $10,000 at end of year two:
|
Note that if today we were at the one-year mark, the above $9,569.38 would be considered the future value of our investment one year from now.
Continuing on, at the end of the first year we would be expecting to receive the payment of $10,000 in two years. At an interest rate of 4.5%, the calculation for the present value of a $10,000 payment expected in two years would be the following:
| Present value of $10,000 in one year:
|
Of course, because of the rule of exponents, we don't have to calculate the future value of the investment every year counting back from the $10,000 investment at the third year. We could put the equation more concisely and use the $10,000 as FV. So, here is how you can calculate today's present value of the $10,000 expected from a three-year investment earning 4.5%:
So the present value of a future payment of $10,000 is worth $8,762.97 today if interest rates are 4.5% per year. In other words, choosing Option B is like taking $8,762.97 now and then investing it for three years. The equations above illustrate that Option A is better not only because it offers you money right now but because it offers you $1,237.03 ($10,000 - $8,762.97) more in cash! Furthermore, if you invest the $10,000 that you receive from Option A, your choice gives you a future value that is $1,411.66 ($11,411.66 - $10,000) greater than the future value of Option B.
Present Value of a Future Payment
Let's add a little spice to our investment knowledge. What if the payment in three years is more than the amount you'd receive today? Say you could receive either $15,000 today or $18,000 in four years. Which would you choose? The decision is now more difficult. If you choose to receive $15,000 today and invest the entire amount, you may actually end up with an amount of cash in four years that is less than $18,000. You could find the future value of $15,000, but since we are always living in the present, let's find the present value of $18,000 if interest rates are currently 4%. Remember that the equation for present value is the following:
In the equation above, all we are doing is discounting the future value of an investment. Using the numbers above, the present value of an $18,000 payment in four years would be calculated as the following:
| Present Value
|
From the above calculation we now know our choice is between receiving $15,000 or $15,386.48 today. Of course we should choose to postpone payment for four years! (For related reading, see Anything But Ordinary: Calculating The Present And Future Value Of Annuities.)
Conclusion
These calculations demonstrate that time literally is money - the value of the money you have now is not the same as it will be in the future and vice versa. So, it is important to know how to calculate the time value of money so that you can distinguish between the worth of investments that offer you returns at different times.