Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Want to increase sales ????

1 Simple Tactic to Increase Sales By 27%

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business-growth-chartI recently read about a smart tactic a Fortune 500 marketing manager used to increase sales by 10%.

I think you'll find it useful. And I think it's something you can implement right away to improve your sales. But what I'm even more excited to tell you about is what the manager did wrong. Which, when done right, should increase sales by even more, perhaps by 27%.

So, what did marketing manager, Brian J. Maynard, do when marketing his company's Jenn-Air and KitchenAid appliances?

He communicated, using statistics, how his products were superior. And his actions lifted sales and website traffic more than 10%.

"Consumers tell us that what they care about are the results -- ultimately how well the product cleans," Maynard says.

So, Maynard executed on the following plan:

Step 1: Conduct market research

First, his team conducted research to prove that its dishwashers outperformed the competition; it did so by 25%.

And to avoid criticism, they tested according to industry standards established by the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers.

Step #2. Communicate results in consumer-friendly way

Rather than use jargon, or promote multiple findings from the research, he sited one statistic that was 1) easy to understand, and 2) most important to customers in their decision making process. This statistic was the fact that their appliances yielded 25% better results than the competition.

Step #3. Include the results within all the company's marketing messages

The "improved results by 25%" message was included in all Jenn-Air and KitchenAid marketing efforts including:

- Television advertising
- Search PPC and online display ads
- Website landing pages
- Print advertising
- Point-of-sale displays (e.g., stickers on machines in stores, in-store flyers & in-store banners)

The resulting 10% increase in sales makes sense, doesn't it?

By PROVING, using statistics, that their products were better, and by marketing this improvement in multiple venues, sales increased. All very logical.

So, clearly, if you can conduct research to prove that your products or services are superior, do so. And then tell the world about it.

But, I want you to correct what Maynard did wrong.

He failed to leverage the Law of Specificity which states that specificity encourages believability and credibility.

Specifically, Maynard stated that his products were "25%" better. If he would have said "24.7%" better, the results would have seemed more credible and believable to his target customers. As a result, I expect that sales would have jumped significantly more.

One great example of specificity is Ivory soap, which claims itself to be "99 44/100% pure." Not 99%. Not 100%. By being extremely specific, Ivory's claims are more believable.

So get specific.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Attitude !!!


This is attitude



IF AN EGG IS BROKEN BY AN OUTSIDE FORCE..A LIFE ENDS.
IF AN EGG BREAKS FROM WITHIN...... .LIFE BEGINS.

GREAT THINGS ALWAYS BEGIN FROM WITHIN .
cid:_2_09A1D62C09A1D3D800304C3C652576D2


This is attitude
IT'S BETTER TO LOSE YOUR EGO TO THE ONE YOU LOVE.
THAN TO LOSE THE ONE YOU LOVE ....... BECAUSE OF EGO
cid:_2_06D4946406D4921000304C3C652576D2








This is attitude




WHY WE HAVE SO MANY TEMPLES, IF GOD IS EVERYWHERE ?

A WISE MAN SAID :
AIR IS EVERYWHERE,
BUT WE STILL NEED A FAN TO FEEL IT .
cid:_2_06D4D1B006D4CF5C00304C3C652576D2






This is attitude




WHEN YOU TRUST SOMEONE TRUST HIM COMPLETELY WITHOUT
ANY DOUBT....... AT THE END YOU WOULD GET ONE OF THE TWO :

EITHER A LESSON FOR YOUR LIFE OR A VERY GOOD PERSON






(Hillary and Tensing in picture)

cid:_2_099291F809928FA400304C3C652576D2






This is attitude




LIFE IS NOT ABOUT THE PEOPLE WHO ACT TRUE TO YOUR FACE ........

IT'S ABOUT THE PEOPLE WHO REMAIN TRUE BEHIND YOUR BACK
cid:_2_0992CF3C0992CCE800304C3C652576D2






This is attitude
SOLDIER : SIR WE ARE SURROUNDED FROM ALL SIDES BY ENEMIES ,

MAJOR : EXCELLENT ! WE CAN ATTACK IN ANY DIRECTION.
cid:_2_09675920096756CC00304C3C652576D2














This is attitude




THE WORST IN LIFE IS "ATTACHMENT " IT HURTS WHEN YOU LOSE IT. THE BEST THING IN LIFE IS " LONELINESS "
BECAUSE IT TEACHES YOU EVERYTHING AND, WHEN YOU LOSE IT, YOU GET EVERYTHING.
cid:_1_096796D00967947C00304C3C652576D2






This is attitude




"You never conquer a mountain. You stand on the summit a few moments; then the wind blows your footprints away."
-Arlene Blum
cid:_2_09C9DD0009C9DAAC00304C3C652576D2






This is attitude


“I hear and I forget.
I see and I remember.
I do and I understand.”
Chinese proverb
cid:_1_09CA1A7C09CA182800304C3C652576D2






Monday, March 8, 2010

Facts About Life Insurance

Our lives are subjected to risks of disability and death due to accidental and natural causes like flood, fire or earthquakes. Death or accidents causing permanent or temporary disability affects the income of a household. The family of the victim is placed in hardship. At times survival is at stake for the remaining family. During such a juncture life insurance is required. Risks are capricious. Accidents take place at a time when least expected. So, it is very essential for every individual to have a life insurance.

Human life is precious and its value can’t be measured with a sum of money. Taking insurance is a step to compensate the family members of the insured person. You cant get your loved one back from death. But his sudden loss will never put you in difficulty if you have his life insured. Life insurance is a scheme, which assures a certain sum of money in the form of benefit to the dependants of the insured person. The life insurance schemes are designed in such a way so that a particular amount of money is given to the beneficiaries in case of sudden death of the insured person. So you can avoid complete loss of income in case of sudden death or accident of the insured person if you have a good policy planned beforehand.

A person can also assure a lump sum for his old age by taking insurance policies. You have safety coupled with savings when you go for insurance policies. A limited amount of money in the form of monthly, quarterly, half yearly or annual premiums is enough to secure your future. While taking an insurance policy one must be observant about the coverage of the product. It is advisable that you take insurance policies from certified agents instead of any unknown individual.
Varieties of Life Insurance Policies

The variety of life insurance products in the market is impressive. You are free to choose from among the wide assortment of policies on offer. Brief detail about the major types of life insurance will provide detail knowledge about the subject:

• A term insurance is a product, which will provide the beneficiaries with a lump sum in case of death during the term of insurance.
• If you go for an insurance covering your whole life span, then you receive a fixed amount at the time of death.
• Endowment assurance is by far the most popular form of life insurance. In this kind of a policy, the beneficiary gets a fixed amount either after the full term of the insurance or if death occurs during the tenure of the contract.
• Money back polices are indeed another excellent way of savings. In this kind of a policy, the insured person gets lump sums on particular dates within the specified contract period along with the entire amount assured at the end of the contract term or on death.
• Annuity product is an equally lucrative insurance scheme. Monthly payments are made on particular dates to the insured person till he is alive.
• Linked insurance products assure fixed sum of money at death along with the underlying worth of assets on required dates.

The big insurance houses design insurances suitable for individuals belonging to different socio economic categories. You have customized schemes for women, youth, children, old people, middle-aged individuals, laborers, rural population and people belonging to the highest strata of the society.
Where to Buy Life Insurance Products?

It is advisable that life insurance products are always bought from registered agents. Big Insurance companies appoint agents to sell their schemes. It is the agents who will guide the individuals towards the right policy. Life insurance agents are responsible for briefing the mass about the various insurance policies. They will make you understand the difference between group life insurance schemes and individual policies. Companies who provide insurance policy to their employees free of cost generally take group schemes. Individual policies are usually based on the income of an individual.

It is found that life insurance policies are the only way in which you have guaranteed returns that offer security and protection to your families and offer contentment to society.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Do you want to achieve your dreams ????



To Achieve Your Dreams,




Remember Your A to Z

ENJOYTHEMASTI.COM

A Avoid negative sources, people, places, things and habits.

B Believe in yourself.

C Consider things from every angle.

D Don't give up and don't give in.

E Enjoy life today - yesterday is gone, tomorrow may never come.

F Family and friends are hidden treasures, seek them and enjoy their riches.

G Give more than you planned to.

H Hang on to your dreams.

I Ignore those who try to discourage you.

J Just do it!

K Keep trying no matter how hard it seems - it will get easier.

L Love yourself first and most.

M Make it happen.

N Never lie, cheat or steal; always strike a fair deal.

O Open your eyes and see things as they really are.

P Practice makes perfect.

Q Quitters never win, and winners never quit.

R Read, study and learn about everything important in your life.

S Stop procrastinating.

T Take control of your own destiny.

U Understand yourself to better understand others.

V Visualize it!

W Want it more than anything.

X Xcellerate your efforts.

Y You are unique of all God's creations, nothing can replace you.

Z Zero in on your target and go for it!

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Start t o enjoy life NOW !!!

એક હજાર લખોટીઓ
એક દિવસ વહેલી સવારે એક બિઝનેસમૅને પોતાનો રેડિયો ઑન કર્યો. આમ તો દરરોજ એ એટલો બધો બિઝી (વ્યસ્ત રહેત કે રેડિયો, ટી.વી. કે એવા અન્ય કોઈ મનોરંજનના સાધનોને એના જીવનમા સ્થાન જ નહોતું. રાતદિવસ પોતાના ધંધાના
વિચારોમાં જ ખોવાયેલો રહેતો. એના બાળકો તેમ જ પત્ની એ પણ ભૂલી ગયા હતા કે છેલ્લે જોડે ભોજન ક્યારે લીધું હતું ? પછી ફરવા જવાનો કે પિકનિકનો તો સવાલ જ ક્યાંથી આવે ?
એ શનિવારે એણે આમ જ રેડિયો શરૂ કર્યો હતો. ઘરના બાકીના સભ્યો હજુ સૂતા હતા. જો કે રેડિયો સાવ અમસ્તો જ નહોતો શરૂ કર્યો ! હકીકતમાં એ વખતે એણે બહારગામના કોઈ બિઝનેસમૅન જોડે મિટિંગ રાખેલી. કોઈ કારણોસર પેલાની ફ્લાઈટ કેન્સલ
થઈ.. એટલે હવે સવારના એક કલાકમાં શું કરવું એવી અવઢવમાં જ એણે રેડિયો ઑન કરેલો.
રેડિયો ઑન કર્યો ત્યારે એના પર કોઈ વૃદ્ધ માણસ એક હજાર લખોટીઓની વાત કરી રહ્યો હતો. એ માણસના અવાજમાં અને એની વાતમાં એવું કંઈક હતું કે બિઝનેસમૅનને ધ્યાનથી સાંભળવાની ઈચ્છા થઈ આવી. એ વૃદ્ધ માણસ રેડિયો પરથી ટોમ નામના
પોતાના કોઈ મિત્રને સંબોધીને કહી રહ્યો હતો કે, ‘ટૉમ ! તું જ્યાં હો ત્યાંથી આ ક્ષણે જો મારી વાત સાંભળી રહ્યો હોય તો હવે પછી હું જે કંઈ કહું છું એના પર બરાબર ધ્યાન આપજે.
હું જાણું છું કે તું ખૂબ જ બિઝી (વ્યસ્ત) રહે છે અને અઢળક પૈસા કમાઈ રહ્યો છે, પરંત તેં ક્યારેય વિચાર્યું છે કે એના કારણે તારે તારા ઘર અને કુટુંબથી કેટલો બધો વખત દૂર રહેવું પડે છે ?
ઘણોખરો વખત તું બિઝનેસ ટ્રીપ પર જ હો છો. તારા ઘરના આનંદના પ્રસંગોમાં પણ તું ગેરહાજર હો છો. તને યાદ હશે કે ગયા અઠવાડિયે તારી દીકરીના નૃત્યના કાર્યક્રમમાં તું હાજરી આપી શક્યો નહોતો, ખરું ને ?’ એ વૃદ્ધે બોલતા બોલતા થોડો વિરામ લીધો.
પેલા બિઝનેસમૅનને પણ હવે એની વાતમાં બરાબરનો રસ પડ્યો હતો. થોડુંકવૉલ્યુમ વધારી એ ધ્યાનથી સાંભળવા લાગ્યો.
રેડિયો પરથી પેલા વૃદ્ધે આગળ કહ્યું, ‘ટૉમ ! મારા ભાઈ ! હું તને એક એવી વાત કહેવા માગું છું કે જેણે મારી જિંદગી જ બદલી નાખી છે. વાત એમ છે કે એક દિવસ મેં થોડુંક ગણિત માંડી જોયું. પુરુષની સરેરાશ ઉંમર પંચોતેર (75) વરસની હોય છે. જોકે કેટલાક આનાથી વધારે તો વળી કેટલાક ઓછું પણ જીવતા હોય છે, પરંતુ સરેરાશ ઉંમર પંચોતેર વરસની હોય છે. હવે એ 75ને 52 વડે ગુણી નાખ્યા, કારણ કે એક વરસમાં 52 શનિવાર હોય છે. ગુણાકાર આવ્યો 3900. એટલે કે આટલા શનિવાર સરેરાશ 75 વરસ જીવતા માણસને એની આખી જિંદગી દરમિયાન મળે. (પરદેશમાં શનિવાર સૌથી આનંદનો દિવસ ગણાય છે, કારણ કે એના બીજા દિવસે રજા હોય છે !) જ્યારે મેં આ હિસાબ માંડેલો ત્યારે મારી ઉંમર હતી 55 વરસ ઉપર. એનો અર્થ કે એટલા વખત સુધીમાં હું લગભગ 2900 શનિવાર તો પસાર કરી ગયો હતો ! હવે જો હું 75 વરસ સુધી જ જીવવાનો હોઉં તો મારી પાસે ફક્ત 1000 શનિવાર
બચ્યા હતા ! એનો સાવ સાદો અર્થ એટલો જ કે મારી પાસે આનંદ અને રજાના માત્ર એક હજાર દિવસ જ બચ્યાં હતાં ! મને આઘાત લાગ્યો કારણ કે મારી પાસે મારા કુટુંબ અને મિત્રો સાથે ગાળવાના ફક્ત એટલા જ દિવસો બચ્યા હતા. હું વિચારમાં પડી ગયો. ઘણો વખત વિચાર્યા પછી એ જ દિવસે ગામમાં જઈ, બેચાર સ્ટોરમાં રખડીને હું એક હજાર લખોટીઓ
લઈ આવ્યો. એ લખોટીઓને મારા ટેબલ પર એક કાચની બરણીમાં ગોઠવી દીધી. દર શનિવારે હું એમાંથી એક લખોટી કાઢીને ફેંકી દઉં છું. જેમ જેમ હું એ બરણીને ખાલી થતી જોઉં છું તેમ તેમ મને મારા મિત્રો, સગાંવહાલાં અને કુટુંબીજનો માટે વધારે ને વધારે સમય ફાળવવાની ઈચ્છા થતી જાય છે. અગત્યના અને કરવા જેવાં કામોની મેં યાદી પણ બનાવી
લીધી છે અને હા, તમારી જિંદગીના ઘટતા જતાં દિવસોની સંખ્યા તમને બાકીના દિવસોને
જીવવા જેવા કઈ રીતે બનાવવા એ આપોઆપ સમજાવી દે છે !’
રેડિયો પર એકાદ ક્ષણ માટે શાંતિ છવાઈ ગઈ. પછી ફરીથી એ વૃદ્ધનો અવાજ આવ્યો, ‘હા તો ટૉમ ! આજે મારી એ કાચની બરણીમાંથી મેં છેલ્લી લખોટી કાઢી ! મારા દોસ્ત ! આજે મને 75 વરસ પૂરાં થયાં. અત્યારે હું મારી વહાલી પત્ની તેમ જ બાળકોને શહેરના મોટા અને આધુનિક રેસ્ટોરંટમાં નાસ્તો કરવા લઈ જવાનો છું. હવે મારી બરણી ખાલી છે. હવે પછીનો
દરેક શનિવાર મને ભગવાન તરફથી મળેલ ભેટ હશે. હું ખરેખર ખૂબ જ આનંદથી જીવું છું. હું ઈચ્છું કે તું પણ તારા કુટુંબ સાથે આનંદથી જીવી શકે. એના લીધે પંચોતેરમાં વર્ષે શું ગુમાવ્યું એનો અફસોસ ન રહે ! તું એવું કરી શકે એના માટે તને મારી શુભેચ્છાઓ ! હું હવે રજા લઉં છું દોસ્ત ! બાય !’
રેડિયો પર વાર્તાલાપ પૂરો થયો. એની અસર એવી હતી કે પેલો બિઝનેસમૅન ઊંડા વિચારમાં પડી ગયો. થોડી વાર પછી એ ઊભો થયો. બેચાર ફોન કરી કંઈક વાત કરી પછી ઉપરના માળે જઈ પોતાની પત્ની તેમ જ બાળકોને ઉઠાડ્યા. બધાને નવાઈ લાગી. કોઈ પણ વાર હોય, સવારના પાંચ વાગ્યામાં જ બિઝનેસની પળોજણમાં પડી જતાં એ માણસને આજે હળવા મૂડમાં જોઈ બધાને ખૂબ જ આશ્ચર્ય થતું હતું. છતાં કંઈ પણ બોલ્યા વિના બધા તૈયાર થવા લાગ્યા. ઘરના બધા જ સભ્યો તૈયાર થઈને નીચે બેઠકખંડમાં આવ્યા એટલે બિઝનેસમૅને એમને કહ્યું કે એ દિવસે બધાએ શહેરની સારામાં સારી હોટલમાંનાસ્તો કરવા જવાનું છે અને એ પછી બાજુના દરિયાકિનારે પિકનિક પર ! ઘરની દરેક વ્યક્તિ આનંદના
આઘાતમાં સરી ગઈ. પણ કોઈએ કંઈ જ દલીલ કરી નહીં. એમની જિંદગીમાં પ્રથમ વખત આવેલી એ પળોને દલીલોથી દુષિત કરવાની કોઈની પણ ઈચ્છા નહોતી.
બધા હોંશે હોંશે ગાડીમાં ગોઠવાયા. દરેકનો ચહેરો હસતો હતો. મનમાં કંઈક જુદા જ પ્રકારની
ખુશી હતી. બજારમાંથી પસાર થતી વેળાએ એક સ્ટોર પાસે એ બિઝનેસમૅને ગાડી ઊભી રાખી. બધા ચૂપ થઈ ગયા. એની પત્નીથી ન રહેવાયું એટલે એણે પૂછી જ લીધું કે,
‘કેમ તમારો વિચાર બદલી ગયો કે શું ? અહીંયા કેમ ઊભા રહી ગયા ?’
બિઝનેસમૅન થોડી વાર વહાલથી એની સામે જોઈ રહ્યો. પછી હસીને બોલ્યો, : ‘નહીં વહાલી ! વિચાર નથી બદલ્યો ! આ તો મારે થોડીક લખોટીઓ ખરીદવી છે !!’
MORAL OF THE STORY: Go get your marbles today and start enjoying life with your loved ones.
“There Is Sufficiency In the World for Man’s Need but Not for Man’s Greed”

What is LUck ????

With a file of 300 resumes on his desk and a need to pick someone quickly, my boss told me to make calls on the bottom 50 and toss the rest. "Throw away 250 resumes?" I asked, shocked.
"What if the best candidates are in there?"

"You have a point," he said. "But then again, I don't need people with bad luck here."

- M.Asad Ahmed ( Reader's digest)




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Sunday, December 13, 2009

Warren buffet

Warren Buffett is the world's most successful investor. He started out with money from his three newspaper routes in Washington DC and other small money-making activities. He saved his money and invested it.

Here are the amazing figures:

Age 20, end of 1950 has $9,804 (childhood savings and investments)

Age 21, end of 1951 has $19,738 (a good year in the markets!)

Age 26, 1956 has about $174,000

Age 76, 2006 has about $44,000,000,000 ($44 billion) and begins to give his fortune to Charities. Compounded gain in wealth per year since 1956 was about 28% per year.

Buffett only ever worked for anyone else for about 4 or 5 years. Beginning in 1956 he generated his wealth strictly from investments (which included running an investment partnership and soon included buying whole companies rather than just stocks and bonds). As president of his investment company Berkshire Hathaway his salary has been $200,000 per year for many many years with no bonuses or stock options added to that.

The point is, the man generated $44 billion in wealth from a standing start (no significant inheritance) simply through astute investing. If that does not motivate you as an investor, I don't know what would.

Maybe, just maybe, we can all learn something from Warren Buffett. Maybe, just maybe, his methods and teachings are worth following.

Did you know that Buffett told the investment world in 1999 that stocks were over-valued? He demonstrated that stocks could not return the double-digit returns that investors were expecting. The stock market had been rising rapidly (with some bumps along the way) since 1982. Most investors thought that the internet and the technology boom would allow the market to continue to deliver double digit returns. Buffett pointed out why double digit returns were very unlikely.

At a conference in August 1999, and as publised in Fortune magazine in November 1999, Buffett pointed out that while in the 17 years since 1982, the DOW was up astoundingly from 875 to 9181, in the prior 17 years from the end of 1964 to the end of 1981, the Dow had ended up exactly 1 point from 874 to 875.

Buffett explained that the poor performance in the 1965 through 1981 period was primarily due to rising interest rates and that, conversely, the out-performance in the 17 years ending 1999 was primarily due to declining interest rates. The U.S economy had grown in both periods (370% in the poor-returns period, somewhat under 300% in the mega returns period).

Buffett pointed out that in the long-run earnings grow at about the rate of nominal GDP growth. He then suggested that a reasonable forecast for GDP growth was 5% (3% real growth and 2% for inflation). Adding 2% for dividends he concluded that the overall U.S. stock market was unlikley to return more than 7% per year in the longer term strating from 1999. In fact given the high value of the market in 1999, Buffett's best guess for the return in the 17 years after 1999 was just 6%. Less than half of what most investors were used to and expecting! And he believed it was just as likelyto be less than 6% as more.

In 1999 Buffett's article was met with great skepticism, (he was yesterday's man etc.) investors kept on bidding stock prices up, until they crashed in 2001.

As of 2009 it looks like Buffett may even have been optimisitic - as indeed he said he might be. The Dow is right now at almost exactly the same level as it was in 1999 and the Dow's total return has therefore come only from dividends, perhaps 2% or 2.5% per year. So the DOW has got to rise quickly in the next seven years just to give the 6% that Buffett had guessed it might.

So the point is, Buffett was right in 1999, his simple anlysis has proved to be valid.

In late 2001 Buffett followed up his 1999 FORTUNE magazine article and I was lucky enough to see it. I also at that time dug up the original 1999 article.

Starting in 2002 I have regularly used Buffett's method to try to calculate whether or not the DOW and the S&P 500 were fairly valued or not.

As Buffett said in his 1999 article this is not meant to be a way to predict where the market is going in the short term. But it can help us regognise when the market appears to be over-priced or under-priced. In the long-trun, investing more money when the market seems under-valued is likely to be a winning strategy.

Just today I have updated my analysis of the valuation of the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes, using this Buffett-style analysis. In these latest updates I have added additional charts of GDP versus earnings (a relationship used by Buffett) and I believe that these charts can help us understand the "normalized" earnings on the DOW and the S&P 500 and therefore to understand the attactiveness (or lack thereof) of the stock markets at this time.

Warren buffet

Warren Buffett is the world's most successful investor. He started out with money from his three newspaper routes in Washington DC and other small money-making activities. He saved his money and invested it.

Here are the amazing figures:

Age 20, end of 1950 has $9,804 (childhood savings and investments)

Age 21, end of 1951 has $19,738 (a good year in the markets!)

Age 26, 1956 has about $174,000

Age 76, 2006 has about $44,000,000,000 ($44 billion) and begins to give his fortune to Charities. Compounded gain in wealth per year since 1956 was about 28% per year.

Buffett only ever worked for anyone else for about 4 or 5 years. Beginning in 1956 he generated his wealth strictly from investments (which included running an investment partnership and soon included buying whole companies rather than just stocks and bonds). As president of his investment company Berkshire Hathaway his salary has been $200,000 per year for many many years with no bonuses or stock options added to that.

The point is, the man generated $44 billion in wealth from a standing start (no significant inheritance) simply through astute investing. If that does not motivate you as an investor, I don't know what would.

Maybe, just maybe, we can all learn something from Warren Buffett. Maybe, just maybe, his methods and teachings are worth following.

Did you know that Buffett told the investment world in 1999 that stocks were over-valued? He demonstrated that stocks could not return the double-digit returns that investors were expecting. The stock market had been rising rapidly (with some bumps along the way) since 1982. Most investors thought that the internet and the technology boom would allow the market to continue to deliver double digit returns. Buffett pointed out why double digit returns were very unlikely.

At a conference in August 1999, and as publised in Fortune magazine in November 1999, Buffett pointed out that while in the 17 years since 1982, the DOW was up astoundingly from 875 to 9181, in the prior 17 years from the end of 1964 to the end of 1981, the Dow had ended up exactly 1 point from 874 to 875.

Buffett explained that the poor performance in the 1965 through 1981 period was primarily due to rising interest rates and that, conversely, the out-performance in the 17 years ending 1999 was primarily due to declining interest rates. The U.S economy had grown in both periods (370% in the poor-returns period, somewhat under 300% in the mega returns period).

Buffett pointed out that in the long-run earnings grow at about the rate of nominal GDP growth. He then suggested that a reasonable forecast for GDP growth was 5% (3% real growth and 2% for inflation). Adding 2% for dividends he concluded that the overall U.S. stock market was unlikley to return more than 7% per year in the longer term strating from 1999. In fact given the high value of the market in 1999, Buffett's best guess for the return in the 17 years after 1999 was just 6%. Less than half of what most investors were used to and expecting! And he believed it was just as likelyto be less than 6% as more.

In 1999 Buffett's article was met with great skepticism, (he was yesterday's man etc.) investors kept on bidding stock prices up, until they crashed in 2001.

As of 2009 it looks like Buffett may even have been optimisitic - as indeed he said he might be. The Dow is right now at almost exactly the same level as it was in 1999 and the Dow's total return has therefore come only from dividends, perhaps 2% or 2.5% per year. So the DOW has got to rise quickly in the next seven years just to give the 6% that Buffett had guessed it might.

So the point is, Buffett was right in 1999, his simple anlysis has proved to be valid.

In late 2001 Buffett followed up his 1999 FORTUNE magazine article and I was lucky enough to see it. I also at that time dug up the original 1999 article.

Starting in 2002 I have regularly used Buffett's method to try to calculate whether or not the DOW and the S&P 500 were fairly valued or not.

As Buffett said in his 1999 article this is not meant to be a way to predict where the market is going in the short term. But it can help us regognise when the market appears to be over-priced or under-priced. In the long-trun, investing more money when the market seems under-valued is likely to be a winning strategy.

Just today I have updated my analysis of the valuation of the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes, using this Buffett-style analysis. In these latest updates I have added additional charts of GDP versus earnings (a relationship used by Buffett) and I believe that these charts can help us understand the "normalized" earnings on the DOW and the S&P 500 and therefore to understand the attactiveness (or lack thereof) of the stock markets at this time.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Did you know priority in life???

When things in your life seem almost too much to handle,

When 24 Hours in a day is not enough,

Remember the mayonnaise jar and 2 cups of coffee.

A professor stood before his philosophy class and had some items in

Front of him. When the class began, wordlessly,

He picked up a very large and empty mayonnaise jar

And proceeded to fill it with golf balls.

He then asked the students if the jar was full.

They agreed that it was.

The professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the

Jar. He shook the jar lightly. The pebbles rolled into the open

Areas between the golf balls.

He then asked the students again if the jar was full..

They agreed it was.

The professor next picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar.

Of course, the sand filled up everything else.

He asked once more if the jar was full.

The students responded with an unanimous "yes."

The professor then produced two cups of coffee

From under the table And poured the entire contents

Into the jar, effectively filling the empty space between the sand.

The students laughed.

"Now," said the professor, as the laughter subsided,

"I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life.

The golf balls are the important things - God, family, children, health,

Friends, and Favorite passions -- things that if everything else was

Lost and only they remained, your life would still be full.

The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, house, and

Car.

The sand is everything else --the small stuff.

"If you put the sand into the jar first," he continued,

"there is no room for the pebbles or the golf balls.

The same goes for life.

If you spend all your time and energy on the small stuff,

You will never have room for the things that are

Important to you.

So...

Pay attention to the things that are critical to your happiness.

Play With your children. Take time to get medical checkups.

Take your partner out to dinner.. Play another 18.

There will always be time to clean the house and fix the disposal.

"Take care of the golf balls first --the things that really matter.

Set your priorities. The rest is just sand."

One of the students raised her hand and inquired

What the coffee represented.

The professor smiled. "I'm glad you asked".

It just goes to show you that no matter how full your life may seem,

there's always room for a couple of cups of coffee with a friend."